PROGNOSES AND ANOMALY OF 24TH CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY

Анотація

Development of solar activity in 24^th cycle has specific peculiarity  – non-monotonous increasing of solar activity on grown phase which occurs for 1/3 number of all cycles. The modification of Waldmayer’s method was applied for forecasting 24^th cycle which bases on a connection between maximum sunspot number and speed of increasing of activity on grown phase of cycle.  If we compare 24^th cycle with previous similar cycles Nos. 1, 5, 6, 9, 12, 15 and 16, we can conclude that this cycle will be weak, with maximum sunspot number W_max  (24)  =  73  ±  10  in 2014–2015, most  likely –  in  first half of 2014. Current cycle could be considered as anomaly by three criterions:  a) sharp slowdown in growth after the 30^th of the month cycle, b) two-humped peak cycle with a significant predominance of the second peak height and c) the emergence of a giant sunspot with a diameter of about 170 Mm.